Memorial Day Weekend, I Hope its Gold

Memorial DayIt has got to quite a while since the gold market does not trade on knee jerk reaction. Quite possibly it is because many traders are off today extending the already long holiday weekend in the USA, Memorial Day and in the UK a Bank Holiday. What I am telling you is that the Durable Goods Order where better than expected but not good enough to shake the holders of gold or yen loose.

So gold is still holding its ground as much of the world is concerned that the Fed may cut the fuel before the plane has landed safely in the Hangar. The worst of course are the concerns that the hangar door may be closing, China.

Gold is trading now at $1387 and silver is at 22.47. For a change the range was only about $14. Now the market is dead as many in the US market are winding down to start their weekend early.

On this weekend we should do our best to remember that we are celebrating the lives of those that lost theirs in defense of our country. However we should also try to remember to do our best to stop war whenever possible and I believe the US should stop acting as the world’s policemen losing our family and friends in wars and battles that don’t concern us. Often we back the wrong horse and it kicks us in the face.

I think back to the Iranian Hostage Crisis and the hatred (never again)  and bitterness I felt towards Iranians at that time. But that feeling I had though justified by their immediate actions, was lacking in understanding that the USA by supporting the Shah who was a cruel and ruthless dictator, brought this fate upon us. Now there is an entire generation of Iranians brought up to hate the USA and millions of Americans that believe that these people are evil. I just pray that we don’t make that same kind of mistake again.

Remember our fallen and their valiant deeds. Remember our living defenders and let us make sure they are not sent to defend for political reasons that which should not be defended.

Have a great weekend! – Miguel Perez-Santalla

What else do we have to worry about?

allan framedI was watching my regular 10 o’clock news one evening on a police investigation for the selling of cigarettes on the black market in the metropolitan area.  In the past, such news stories sparked an interest in the sense that we all know that such an activity is illegal just as the illicit street vendors on the streets of New York selling the fake High Name Brand perfumes and hand bags.

But then, the news Anchor went on to say that this cigarette smuggling was related to terrorist activities.  I was taken back for a second – saying to myself ‘What else do we have to worry about?’  A routine black market activity now linked to terrorism and our very safety in the United States?  I was a bit perplexed about this issue because of not wanting unnecessary worry being created by the Authorities.  Now not only is cigarette smoking dangerous for our health but now even the sale of smuggled cigarettes is a concern for our safety.

However, upon closer examination of the issue – perhaps the Authorities may have a reason for concern.   After reading the May 16  Tom Hays smuggled cigarretesarticle on  ‘NY Authorities Probe Money Trial in Smuggling Ring,’  not only is money laundering involved but the financing of terrorist activities.  While money laundering is bad enough, the terrorist implication elevates this activity to a higher level of concern.

From the money laundering perspective, the funds generated from the sale of the smuggled cigarettes resulted in not paying the required tax and the cash was then placed in various banks in the Ocean City, Maryland area.  From a compliance point of view, I can only hope that the banks were running their ‘due diligence’ to question the deposits of cash into the various accounts.  And that those same banks filed Suspicious Activity Reports which in turn then alerted the Authorities as to the illegal cigarette smuggling activity.  One would hope that it was not the reverse that occurred. If it was the Authorities which caught the smugglers then had to trace the funds to the bank, then those banks would have some serious problems to address.

The terrorist connection occurs with the profits generated from the smuggled activity which is somehow directed to the militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah according to New York State Attorney General Eric T. Schneiderman and Police Commissioner Ray Kelly.

What else do we have to worry about ?   Unfortunately for those of us in the business world, we do have to worry.  Something as simple as cigarette smuggling shows us that we really have to know well with whom we are dealing.  While we ourselves may be law abiding and ethical, unfortunately, we do have to question our counterparties even though in most if not all the time they are just as honest as we are.-Allan Ramlall

Miguel Talks Gold on Equities.com

BullionVault_on_transparent_LogoMiguel-Perez Santalla talks to Ed Kershen of Equities.com at the Mining & Minerals Conference in New York. Miguel talks about BullionVault, the precious metals market, the benefits of holding physical gold for the retail investors, and why he believes gold will be stable and quiet in the near-term, and ready to pop over the long-term. “Prices drops are opportunities to buy,” says Miguel. See the Equities.com interview.

Miguel Perez-Santalla on Equities.com

China sneezes and the US may get ill, time to buy gold again….

chinese masks for coldI guess there is something more important than what Dr. Bernanke has to say. Apparently the report that the flash HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May fell to 49.6 under the 50-point level means contraction for the first since October. This has been seen by money managers the world over as contagious to the US. The US dollar was swiftly sold off in the Asian markets and continued into today’s US trading hours. Even the positive new Home Sales Number or the better than expected Jobless Claims report were considered not to be cures for this feverish situation.

So what was the medicine being prescribed in this situation. It was gold and the Japanese yen. The yen soared to 100.83 per dollar before settling down at around 102 this afternoon. The dollar lost over 1% of its value in one day.

Gold was positive all day and traded as high as $1398 per ounce and remains this afternoon trading at above $1391 per ounce. Silver benefited as well and is currently trading at $22.61 per ounce. Copper took a big hit losing 2.3% over the concerns of weakening demand from China due to the poor PMI report.

I don’t know about you but this proves one thing for me. Dr. Bernanke can stop giving you all the dollars to wipe your nose with you need and you will have to use your sleeves. But if there isn’t anyone to buy what you have to sell then maybe that is not the best medicine for our current illness, at least that is what the market thinks.-Miguel Perez-Santalla

I like volatility in the Gold Market but this is ridiculous!

Sinking QEI don’t know about you folks but I have had my fill of this constant nonsense with the Fed. The BIG news today was that the FED wants to end QE sooner than later. Is that big news? Really, it is nothing new. I would think if they end QE sooner than later it is actually quite dangerous. The economy which is barely moving now would all of a sudden have to dump the fuel and sink. The end effect would be the end of growth with a possible second and more perilous recession. This is why the Fed is neither giving dates nor saying anything new. They want to see real growth and then they will slowly take the candy from the baby’s mouth.

Still, because of the likelihood of aggressive ECB QE to come as of this morning the gold market made a high of $1414.30 and it looked like it may stay in this direction until Bernanke was interviewed and he gave statements indicating their desire to end QE. Then it started to trade lower. Right before the release of the FOMC report some players were dumping gold like crazy. I wonder how they knew that the minutes would confirm this outlook? I am certain it has nothing to do with the Fed’s intercourse with the banking biggies on a regular basis. I guess these folks are just lucky……

That being said it is silly that after all these months of the same story it can still cause there to be a $60 spread between the high and the low. I do like volatility but this is simply stupidity. Someone is getting rich off of these fast sharp moves and it ain’t Mom and Pop.

Luckily Mom and Pop have been buying gold since down in the $900 and won’t be letting go anytime soon. They look for security from the banking mafia. This is why US Gold Eagle sales are up about 50.4% over last year and still selling. Confidence is weak, not just in the currency but in the way this country, the USA, is run. – Miguel Perez-Santalla

 

Copper New Highs While Gold Trades Wide Range

Patricia Cauley, MetalPrices.com

Patricia Cauley, MetalPrices.com

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony to the Joint Economic Committee this afternoon remains the focus for the markets. The base metals nevertheless rallied this morning but volume remains rather thin.  Copper is the exception however as turnover has been relatively good with production problem issues (Grasberg, Bingham Canyon) prevailing.  Much is also to be said about the growing issues relating to visible warehouse stocks and its availability. Copper prices have reached a two week high but any tightness in the physical market will probably be played out in premiums and spreads

Precious Metals are also awaiting FOMC minutes as what he is expected to say may be bearish for gold.  Gold was weighed down by a strong USD along with Mr. Bernanke’s anticipated remarks on possibly withdrawing of the Fed’s quantitative easing (QE) program.  Though today has seen a crazy $50 range all depends on Mr. Bernanke’s view of the economy.  Fundamentally speaking, there was strong physical buying from China and India that enabled gold to reach USD $1400 oz.  Physical gold buyers have increasingly stepped into the market since the first price break below $1600 oz. earlier in the year.  This is in contrast to investor holdings of gold via the ETF with reported holdings now down 70.3m oz from 84.6moz at the start of the year, a 17% decline.   The Platinum Group Metals were also weighed down by gold with lower prices across the board.-Patricia Cauley

The Emperor Has No Gold…..oh is it supposed to be Clothes?

emperor's new clothesRecently I had been asked about the gold market and I had said that I believed it would continue to move lower. Of course, it made me look good. It has happened before that I have looked good on a call. Of course I have been wrong at times also. But there have been some calls I have made that went unheard of and people argued with me that I was wrong..

I recall that I spoke with certain people and said the mortgage and real estate markets were too hot and there was something wrong. I was told that demand was hot because of low interest rates and that people were working so that it was healthy. I said gold was ridiculously low at $250 range and people argued with me that it was a useless metal and with the more than perfect financial markets we have that it was an unneeded relic.

So Bernanke speaks tomorrow, and people keep looking at the apple without noticing the tree. Today Fed President Dudley gave more inference that they will be pulling back on QE. People believe this is because our markets are humming. The truth is they are far from humming and it seems that we could see some overheating coming down the road. It won’t happen fast but it will come. This is why the Fed constantly plays games with what they are saying and doing. [Read more...]

How Many Bitcoins Is An Ounce of Prevention Worth?

bitcoinThe very recent publicity surrounding the U.S. Department of Homeland Security actions against the Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox resulting in the shutdown of its operations has caused a great jolt in the virtual currency world. Without judging the merits of the operations of Bitcoin in this virtual currency marketplace, I find it very difficult to believe that it has placed itself in such jeopardy.

In recent years, FinCEN has issued a flurry of rulings and guidance that define the various types of financial institutions that qualify as Money Services Businesses. They culminate in FinCEN’s March 18th guidance that lays out the responsibilities of users, administrators and exchangers of those virtual currencies. Entering into this particular type of financial market, it would have been prudent to consult with the experts. Knowing that there is an international regulatory framework focused on money laundering and terrorist financing, alarm bells should have sounded long ago that, sooner or later, some sort of adverse action would occur. [Read more...]

I Love New York City!

music harmonyPeople often ask me about my commute. Then they seem more interested in my walk to the office which is 17 blocks from Port Authority. They wonder why I do it everyday. The primary reason is because by avoiding the subway I spend more time breathing the air and enjoying the sights and sounds. It really makes me feel alive.

This morning I was rewarded with live music as a band was playing a beautiful melancholy love song outside the Fox building on Sixth Avenue. I stopped and listened for a few minutes joyfully. I guess later I can figure out who the band was by looking it up on the internet but for now I can just say it put a smile on my face. Like a beautiful painting, a gorgeous view of nature, so is a band that plays in excellent harmony. What a nice gift this morning, I hope that you all get something special in your day as I did this morning. This is why I walk and love New York City.-Miguel Perez-Santalla

#Gold Still Shows Signs of Life

Life2You would think with the continued weakness in the Eurozone that it would be enough to stabilize gold and silver. However, yesterday’s GDP number did nothing but drive more money into the US Dollar and US Equities. Then today we had the incredibly growing unemployment numbers in Spain and France. But even this was not enough to help.

The Dollar remains King and walking in this morning as the US 8:30 data came out It was a mixed bag as CPI was slightly better and Housing Starts were worse than expected. But the Building Permits number offset the negativity of the Housing Starts and caused another rally in favor of the US dollar as gold was getting dumped again. Gold hit as low as $1370.

But then the Philadelphia Fed Survey came out shockingly lower than expected at minus 5.2 when they were expecting a positive number. Just like a patient suffering a heart attack and lying on the ground, gold was shocked back to life. The high it hot today was in the range of $1398 just not enough to go over that psychological $1400 level.

But the good news is gold and silver are still alive. The bad news is it is still a bear market and needs a lot of physical therapy before it can get on its feet anytime soon. Gold is trading now at $1387 and silver at $22.72 Somehow during this US Bull Run I expect that there will be something to change direction again. Another few signals like the Philadelphia report today and gold bulls may have a reason to smile again.- Miguel Perez-Santalla